Needless to say, it does not make a lot sense to bet against New York, as for well over a decade they have been the best team in baseball year in year out.

The Yankees success has led to frequently inflated money lines by odds makers, as they know the wagering public may root for an underdog from time to time, but when it comes down to placing money on wagers, favorites will get the call the vast majority of the time.

With New York having the best talent money can buy or trade for, the Yankees are often a -200 or more ML favorites and each loss suffered in this realm means at least two other victories are required to break even or show a profit.

It is often suggested by handicappers or others in wagering forums to reduce the risk of betting the Yankees from time to time, instead bet them as large favorites on the run line (-1.5). Here you are predicting New York wins by two or more runs and if they don’t, your risk is basically cut in half.

The question becomes is this the right strategy?

Broke down last year’s championship regular season on New York and focused first on them being a -155 or higher money line favorite. Of their 162 games, the Bombers were placed in this role 82 times or just over half their contests played, which is rather hefty baggage.

For those not familiar, a -200 favorite is a 66.6 percent choice to win, basically 2-1 and manager Joe Girardi’s club was 58-24, 70.7 win percentage when a -155 or higher betting pick.

As you might imagine, a number of the 24 defeats were extremely pricey (five at -285 or higher) and it really cut into potential profits. For their 58 wins in this circumstance, Derek Jeter and teammates showed a meager ML profit of +7.2 units winning seven out of 10 games as decided favorites.

Instead of picking and choosing run lines, let’s convert all 82 contests as good to oversized chalk into run lines.

The first bit of news is somewhat depressing, as 10 of the 58 wins were one run victories, giving us 10 more losses for wagering purposes and lowering our winning percentage to 58.5 percent, wagering on the run line.

However, many of our regular wins came with increased profits on the run line. Of our 48 W’s that covered the spread (-1.5), 26 of them were in the range of -155 to -190 and instead of having a +100 profit on triumphs, the profits were +105 or greater. Those 26 wins provided rewards of +30.55 units.

Now for the math lesson on ML vs. RL.

Our 58-24 ML record added up this way.

58 units – 50.2 units = +7.8 units

But take our poorer spread record (48-34) and do the math.

New York had 26 wins that generated +30.55 to go along with the other 22 wins that added up +22 more units.

Our original 24 defeats moved over to run line bets lost -26.3 units and the new 10 extra losses against the spread cost an additional -10.5 units. Nonetheless look at the difference.

30.55 + 22 = 52.55 (-) 26.3 + 10.5 = -36.8

52.55 – 36.8 = +15.7 units

The +15.7 units of profit on the RL nearly double’s the amount made of betting the Yankees on the money line in same exact situations. What looks more enticing to you?

Another story frequently spoken in sports betting circles is taking the Yankees as -150 or smaller favorites because of the “value” you are getting on them as compared to higher prices. While this might be true to a point, it’s certainly not a fact.

Last year A-Rod and the fellas were -105 to -150 favorites 56 times, just over a third of the schedule, thus making the argument of “rare” opportunity sound ridiculous. In those games, Steinbrenner’s crew was 33-23 for +3.3 units of profit.

However, upon digging further, if the sage bettor bet the Pinstripes on the run line in price range of -130 to -150 they would have came away with +5.2 units in spite of 9-8 record or better than playing New York as “valued” favorite 56 times.

Sports betting has become a popular way to enjoy your favorite games and make money out of it as well. With the convenience of the internet, it has also become a good means to make money online. Aside from being fun, you can also make money out of it.

If you are a risk taker and you want to take risks to double or triple your money and win big in betting on your favorite sporting events, you can enjoy participating in online sports betting where you can bet online, watch the game and win. However, it is important to consider that you can lose everything in this type of venture and make sure you only bet an amount that you can afford to lose.

In sports betting, you can choose from the many sports that allow betting. Among them are boxing, soccer, football, tennis and horse racing. You can also choose from among your favorite leagues or college teams. These days, with the convenience of the internet, you can also bet online and at the comforts of your own home.

If you want to take this risks but enjoy the fun and the chance to win big, you can learn how to bet on sports whether online or offline but try to check if sports betting is allowed in your area. Remember that there are still a lot of states that consider sports betting illegal, so make sure you are aware of the rules in your area.

If you want to make extra money by betting on sports, here are some tips to help you get started.

Know the rules of sports betting. Although you don’t need to be an expert on the specific type of sports you are betting, it is however important to be familiar with how betting on sports is done. You have to understand the different types of bets and learn your chances in winning big from it.

You may want to bet on the winner, or you may want to bet on the scores of the game, or you may want to bet on the score margin. Indeed, there are different types of bets you can put your money at and win.

If you want to make big money in betting on your favorite sports, you have to understand that it is not just all about luck. There are a few things that you need to consider to increase your chances of making big money. In fact, there are professionals who analyzes the performance of the team and help determine their possible win on the next game. With a good analysis, you can bet wisely on the team that would most likely win. Of course, in sports, there are always teams and individuals who are popular and are favorites to win, but of course, in sports betting, this is also considered so as to have a fair game.

These days, with almost everything done over the internet, you can also bet online and enjoy your game and your winnings even at the comforts of your own home.

By choosing tennis as your preferred sport for betting, you have already given yourself an “edge” against those who bet on or offer odds on other sports. To use this “edge” to make money consistently, however, you’ll need to understand two fundamental principles first. Then apply the power of mathematics.

Principle #1

It is sheer folly to place a tennis bet (or a bet on anything) with a “traditional” bookmaker. The expression “You can’t beat the bookie” is axiomatic; you just cannot beat the bookie over time. It’s because the odds are always mathematically calculated in favour of the bookmaker. Everyone knows (or should know) that the bookie’s mathematical “edge” against the punter is necessary for him to make a profit so that he can stay in business.

Computer technology has given rise to a new form of betting, known as “exchange betting” or “matched betting”. With “betting exchanges” there is no bookie to beat; in other words, there is no middle-man. Every punter bets against another punter or punters somewhere out there in the Internet ether. Any punter (or “trader”) can place a “back” bet that a player or team will win, and/or place a “lay” bet that a player or team will lose. Thus, any punter can choose to act as an ordinary bettor and/or as a bookmaker.

With exchange betting the odds are not set by a third-party or middle-man; they are set by the punters themselves, who place requests for odds at which they are prepared to place bets (if they wish to act as an ordinary bettor), or place offers of odds at which they are prepared to lay bets (if they wish to act as a bookmaker).

As the “back” bettors gradually lower their requested odds and the “lay” bettors gradually raise their offered odds, the software on the exchange betting web site matches all the back bets with all the lay bets at the instant they coincide. The accounts of the “backers” or “layers” are then credited with their winnings automatically a few seconds after the end of the event according to its result.

Obviously, the technology for providing such a “fair” betting service must be paid for somehow. This payment is taken in the form of a commission on the punter’s net winnings on an event (or “market”). That is, commission is charged only on any positive difference between winnings and losses on the same event.

This betting system is as close to a perfectly fair betting environment as it is possible to achieve.

There are very few betting exchanges in existence, however, perhaps because the exchange betting software is so complex and therefore costly. The giant among exchange betting web sites is Betfair, with about 90% of the market at the time of writing. Others are the Global Betting Exchange (BetDAQ), ibetX, Betsson, Matchbook and the World Bet Exchange (WBX). Betfair is by far the most popular because it was the first to offer this “perfectly fair” betting environment, and is trusted to perform accurately and instantly.

Principle #2

So, why does tennis betting give you that “edge” over betting on other sports? The answer, though simple, is often overlooked even by those who bet tennis regularly. And if you’re someone who’s never bet on tennis, you’d almost certainly not have realized the significance of the tennis scoring system on the betting.

Consider this fundamental difference between the tennis scoring system and that of probably any other sport you can think of.

In other sports and games the trailing player or team must make up the points gap by winning a point for every point they have already lost in order to catch up to the leader. Only then can they start to move ahead. This fact seems obvious.

In tennis, however, the trailing player or team can lose the first set 6-0 (possibly with a deficit of 24 points). That team can then win the second set by the most narrow of margins, 7-6 in a tie-break, winning the set by very few points (or even by winning fewer points than the opponents, a rare but possible occurrence!).

As soon as the trailing player or team wins the second set, the two sides suddenly have even scores, even though one player or team might have actually won many more points than the opponents.

This anomaly often has a profound psychological effect on one or both sides, which affects the way they play for the next few minutes, and therefore also the betting odds requested and offered by punters on the match. This, however, is another aspect of tennis betting which may be the subject of another article. This article deals with the mathematical aspect of tennis betting and how to win money with this knowledge.

How to win at tennis betting

Now that you’re aware of these two fundamental principles, how can you use them to your advantage when making tennis bets?

The key is not to be just a “backer” or a “layer”, simply betting on the final outcome of an event. If you do that, you will lose out over time, because there’s always a small difference between the “back” odds and the “lay” odds — there must be, otherwise there’d be no incentive for anyone to offer odds and there’d be no betting at all. Combine that with the commission you pay on your net winnings, and the “edge” is against you mathematically (although it is not as great as with conventional bookmakers).

The secret to winning at tennis betting is to be BOTH a “backer” AND a “layer”, but at different points during the event. This is another aspect of betting that distinguishes the exchange betting web site from the traditional bookie. At the betting exchange you can place a back or lay bet at any time during the event, right up until the very last second or the final point. This is known as “in-play” betting.

Because in-play betting is allowed, the odds for each opposing side change as the event progresses, according to the likelihood (as perceived by the punters) of either one side or the other being the eventual winner. The trick is to place a back bet on one side at certain odds and later place a lay bet on that side (or a back bet on the other side) at better odds as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favour. If you can achieve this, you will win your bet overall, regardless of the outcome of the event — a true “win-win” scenario.

Why bet on tennis and not on other sports?

Apart from Principle #2, explained earlier, tennis is ideal for such “swing” betting, because the odds fluctuate after every point is played. There are therefore very many small swings to one side and then to the other. This doesn’t happen in soccer, for example, because goals are so rare and a goal shifts the advantage suddenly and hugely to the scoring side.

Furthermore, a tennis match can have one of only two results; there can be no draw or tie; and one of only two players or teams can win. In horse racing, for example, the winner can come from a large number of runners.

The more possible outcomes there are to factor into the equation, the more difficult it is to win. (Despite this obvious logic, soccer and horse racing remain the two most popular sports for betting, probably for historical reasons. Tennis is already third in popularity, however, as more and more punters discover the fact that it is easier to make money betting on tennis than on any other sport.)

“In-play” betting or “pre-event” betting?

Now that you have — it is hoped — understood and absorbed the generalities of exchange betting and the peculiarities of tennis scoring, it is time to explain the details of how you can win at tennis betting.

Earlier it was stated that the secret to winning at tennis betting is to be both a “backer” and a “layer”, but at different points during the event, placing bets at different times during the event as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favour. This can be done with both “in-play” betting and “pre-event” betting.

One method used with in-play betting is called “scalping”. As its name suggests, scalping involves skimming a tiny profit by backing or laying at exactly the right moment as the odds move slightly in your favour, perhaps when one player scores two or three consecutive points, and repeating the process again and again. The biggest drawback of scalping is that it is very time-consuming and fraught with mental and physical tension. Not only must you pay full attention to what’s happening during the match by live video broadcast, but you must also catch exactly the right moments at which to bet, which is, in fact, made impossible by the 5-second delay imposed by the exchange betting software between the time you place the bet and the time it is accepted.

We’re not elaborating on this here because, as stated previously, this article is about winning by mathematics, not by the sweat of your brow. The maths aspect involves betting, not during the event, but before the event starts. That is, pre-event betting.

Mathematics do not lie!

There are a few tennis betting “systems”, some purely manual, others using software programs, some of which are enormously complicated. From the investigations of the writer (a mathematician), they all require the input, at some point, of a “probability factor” by the bettor. This probability factor is usually the odds at which you want your “balancing” bet (the “lay” bet on the “backed” side or the “back” bet on the opposing side) to be triggered, giving you the “win-win” scenario mentioned earlier.

So, how do you determine the value of this probability factor? That, dear reader, is the crucial point of the whole matter, the linch-pin that holds any exchange betting “system” together and determines whether it succeeds or fails, whether you win or lose.

Up to now, it seems, this probability factor has had to be determined by the sheer experience of a few seasoned professional gamblers, or by trial-and-error guesswork by lesser mortals. Little wonder that so many punters lose or do not win as much as they could because they do not know the EXACT value needed to optimize their bets!

Accuracy is of paramount importance when determining the probability factor, in order to maximize the chances of winning consistently. A search on the Web for a tool to calculate it proved negative. The writer therefore created one that encompasses not only all aspects of exchange betting but also the peculiarities of the tennis scoring system, and called it the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, for want of a better name. The probability factor is calculated to two decimal places, merely by entering the pre-event odds of both opposing sides, and has enabled the writer to make consistently more than 10% profit from tennis betting since Wimbledon 2009.

As a parallel test, the writer also placed bets according to “gut feeling”, in sufficient numbers to establish a trend. It resulted in a loss of 10% of the working capital (or “bank”).

Other tests were done, using the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, by betting on other sports where small odds swings occur, such as American Football, snooker and darts (very long matches only, otherwise the swings are too large). The results here just about covered the commissions paid on winnings; so, it is not worthwhile.

It seems, then, that the particular mathematical formula or algorithm (which is very complex) discussed here works well only in conjunction with the unique scoring system of tennis.

Conclusion

As a scientist, the writer feels that it is highly probable to win at sports betting consistently over time only when the following factors are present:

1. An exchange betting web site is used, not a conventional betting web site. (Beware of many sites that pretend to offer exchange betting by appearing in search engine results for “exchange betting”! Ensure that their software system enables you both to back and to lay bets at any odds you want against other punters, not against the house. If in doubt, check that their web site looks like the one at Betfair.)

AND

2. The sport is tennis, because of its unique scoring system.

AND

3(a) You learn about and become experienced in in-play betting and are prepared to devote almost all your time glued to a computer screen while following each match, sometimes more than one simultaneously.

OR

3(b) You use software that tells you exactly the odds to request and offer and the stakes to place in pre-event betting in only a few minutes, thus allowing you to get on with your normal life.

“Discover The Explosive Sports Betting Secrets That Win Me 90% Of All My System Bets – PhD Mathematician Creates Winning Formula!”

So Does It Really win 90% of the System Plays?

From my experience the answer is “NO”…. It actually is doing better than 90%. At the time of this writing here are the current records:

Football (NCAA & NFL): 60-1 98.36% Winning Percentage

NBA: 26-1 96.30% Winning Percentage

Now just to clarify, these records are based on his system plays. Basically how they work is on a 3 game progression. You start with an A bet and if it loses then your B bet makes up for the A loss plus your target profit. If the B bet loses then your C bet is to make up for the losses at A & B Bets plus your target profit.

Let’s look at an example. Let’s say that your goal was to win $10 per series then the bets would look like this:

Bet A: $11 to win $10 (Using -110 Odds)

Bet B: $23.10 to win $21 (Make up the $11 from A Bet Loss + the Target Profit of $10)

Bet C: $48.51 to win $44.10 (Make up the $11 A Loss & $23.10 B Loss + the Target Profit of $10)

*** Each Loss is Equivalent to roughly 8 Wins (8.2 wins) ***

Here are the actual weighted results:

Football (NCAA & NFL): 60-8 +52 Net Units

NBA: 26-8 +18 Net Units

So How Much Money Could You Have Won?

Football

$100 Bettor Earns $5,200

$500 Bettor Earns $26,000

$1000 Bettor Earns $52,000

NBA

$100 Bettor Earns $1,800

$500 Bettor Earns $9,000

$1000 Bettor Earns $18,000

Not bad for only a few minutes of work per day.

So How Does This Program Actually Work?

All of the plays that are released are based off of 15 years of past trends and statistics, but the best part is that you don’t even need to figure out the plays for yourself. The owner, Rich Allen will actually send you the plays by email each and every day. It doesn’t get much easier than that.

What’s Revealed In Their Sports Betting eBook System

Basically, this system claims to reveal a lot of secrets as it relates to sports gambling. While most bettors go on to play by the rules, there are the professional gamblers who have beat the bookies. The developers of the system stumbled across some very valuable strategies and methods that had been used by expert bettors for years. As they tested the strategies and saw the winning results come rolling in, they system was born and now released to the general public.

Betting Underground’s Main Characteristics

The system includes methods so versatile that anyone can apply the system to betting on almost any sport. There are some great fast winning blueprints that bettors can apply to begin experiencing immediate winnings so they can start growing their betting fund and expanding from there.

How It Compares To Other Systems

There are other sports gambling systems such as Sports Betting Champ and Sports Betting Professor that have worked very well for many enthusiastic bettors, however, those systems limit their usages to just three main sports: basketball, football, and baseball. Betting Underground can be applied to horse racing, cricket, hockey, soccer, you name it. As an additional advantage, the other systems cost at least $200 to access! Wouldn’t you rather save that money for your betting funds? I think so.